Brain Trust - Warren Smith

Warren Smith, Associate Editor of World Magazine, joined the Brain Trust to discuss the presidential race. Here are the "CliffsNotes" of his segment.

In the recent GOP debates, Gingrich seems to like this format of debating one-on-one.  

There are two things that play in Gingrich's favor here.  First, he is very good in this format.   

Last night they were discussing foreign policy and he came out very well, even though Huntsman is considered an expert on foreign policy.   

Secondly, he wants to eventually debate Obama one-on-one. He also knows if it comes down to him and Romney for the GOP they will be paired together in this style of debate.  

Why are these other front runners afraid of him?

I just think they realize that he is very good in this format.  He comes across very well.   

In this format he had the chance to give more extended answers.  In a larger debate setting you tend to get media sound-bytes when you have 6 or 7 candidates.

It appears Romney is nervous about this surge by Gingrich.

I think you're right.  Gingrich is finally polling at 30%, which has proven to be a difficult number for any of the candidates to sustain thus far in the campaign.   

In Iowa it will be less about who wins, but rather who loses in that primary.  I think after Iowa and New Hampshire, we will see a couple of candidates get out of the race.   

Once we see the support of those candidates re-shuffle we will see what it looks like. This has been the fall-out of the Herman Cain situation; we have seen a lot of Cain's support go over to Gingrich

What do you make of this speech Obama recently made in Kansas?

Some have said it was the start of his reelection campaign.  In reality he is merely trying to shift the focus off of his failed presidency. 

He will attempt to make this a race about two competing visions for America.

Brain Trust - Warren Smith

Warren Smith, Associate Editor of World Magazine, joined the Brain Trust to discuss the Republican presidential hopefuls and the Occupy Wall Street movement. Here are the "CliffsNotes" of his segment.

Thoughts on tonight's debate?

I am not sure if it really is do-or-die for Perry, he has had a great period of fundraising.  He does have to do well tonight though.  I don't think people are expecting him to suddenly transform into a great debater, but Rick Perry must do better tonight.   

Herman Cain is very interesting, he is great in the debates, he is good for media sound-bytes.  But in the end whoever raises the most money is likely the one who wins this contest. Perry and Romney have shown they have what it takes in this regard.   

I am not sure Herman Cain can raise the kind of money it will take to win the whole thing.  Barack Obama and his friends are going to raise close to a billion dollars to fund his re-election campaign.  I only see two GOP candidates that can compete with that level of money: Romney and Perry

Is Romney's Mormonism a problem for him?

If you look at his last run at the nomination I believe that his Mormonism was a real reason that he didn't make it farther in spite of his tons of money raised and spent.   

I do think that enough of the conservative evangelical voters have enough doubts that it eventually really hurts Romney.  And I might add, that it must be an enthusiastic movement of conservative voters before this issue will really trip of Romney. 

What is the impact of Occupy Wall Street?

I think the backlash is going to become a real positive for the Republicans.  It isn't really the 99% against the 1%, over 47% of Americans didn't even pay income tax last year.   

So when the facts start to come out, due to the excessive media coverage, will shine the light upon the negatives of the underlying philosophy of these folks sitting out there on the streets.  

Warren Smith: Minnesota could affect the debt-ceiling talks

Warren Smith, Associate Editor of World Magazine and member of the Matt Friedeman Show Brain Trust, on the debt ceiling, Obama, and Bachmann.
 

The debt ceiling talks going on right now. The big question: Will the GOP hold firm on taxes?

Yogi bear once said that predictions are dangerous, especially predictions about the future. So I want to be careful.

Something really interesting is going on in Minnesota right now, which will tell us what could go on at the federal level.

In other words, if they can look at a state like Minnesota, and see that the Democrats are getting blamed for the shutdown, I think the Republicans will hold firm.

The Teaparty folks are wanting to stand firm no matter what.

Boehner has to be wondering if his guys are going to follow if he ups taxes.

I think tax cuts are the neutron bomb for Republicans.

I don't think there's any way to get enough Republicans to go along with a tax increase.

There is actually common ground between Republicans and Democrats.

I think it's possible that they may come up with some sort of deal.

The president said that unemployment going up to 9.2% proved the stimulus. Explain that...

When the government dumped all that money into the economy, it provided an artificial bump.

He's trying to hide the facts that the benefits of the stimulus were artificial and temporary. But they created mostly government jobs in Washington DC.

Can Barack Obama be elected with 8.5%, 9.0% unemployment?

Don't underestimate the guy.

This is a guy who as a first term senator got himself elected president of the United States.

He's going to raise a billion dollars for his reelection campaign. It's going to be the most expensive campaign in the world.

They start off with a structural advantage of anywhere from 15-20%.

I wouldn't count him out, even though the economic indicators seem to show he's in trouble.

One poll has Bachmann up in Iowa. Does she stand a chance?

Michele Bachmann is an attractive candidate on so many levels..And she can raise money. She's kind of a fundraising machine.

The problem with Michele Bachmann is you can't just raise millions, you have to raise hundreds of millions.

Michele Bachmann, even though I like her enormously, has some major structural problems against her.

Last night's debate, Weiner, and the economy

Warren Smith, Associate Editor of World Magazine and member of the Matt Friedeman Show Brain Trust, on Weiner, the economy, and last night's debate.


Your perspectives on last night's debate?

Well, my perspective is that a number of them looked pretty good.

Bachmann did better for herself than most people did.

Romney was trying to not make a gaffe....I think he generally did that.

If there was a loser, I think it might have been Herman Cain.

Pawlenty had a chance to hang Obamneycare around Romney, and didn't. Is he the loser?

He's got to walk a fairly delicate tightrope right now.

Tim Pawlenty's trying to make himself seen as a non-everybody else.

If Mitt Romney's going to be knocked off the top perch, his opponents will have to go after him. Will they?

One of the thing Tim Pawlenty's facing right now is some poll numbers that nobody in New Hampshire knows about him.

I think he's going to end up on the stump in New Hampshire, in Iowa.

Was this debate too early to matter?

It is early, but it's not as early as it was.

We're now into the summer. People are beginning to start paying attention a little bit more.

This is the time when organizations, when campaigns have to get their staff in place and start raising some serious money.

Even South Carolina, which is a relatively small state, has three major media markets in it...you've got to spend some money there.

Anthony Weiner. Larger lesson to be learned here than we've got a pervert for a congressman?

One lesson we should learn here is that character matters.

Even looking at someone like Newt Gingrich here or Bill Clinton...it's character issues that ultimately bring down these great men.

Debbie Wasserman-Schultz said we've turned the economy around. Does this sort of rhetoric actually work?

Sometimes it does work. But this time I don't think it will.

If people don't really understand what's going on, that rhetoric might have an influence.

We are not out of the woods in terms of this recession. We look at these massive debts that are ballooning out of control.

I'm hopeful that the truth will win in this particular debate.

The president's saying the recovery's going to take time. By extension that means Bush is still to blame.

Why wouldn't he? If he doesn't, he'll have to accept so much of the responsibility.

I think Barack Obama is a brilliant politician. I am not, candidly, that hopeful that one of these Republicans will knock him off in this election cycle.

I think many people are seeing through what the true cause of these economic problems is.

One piece of this that is true, is that George W. Bush does share some of the blame for these massive debts.

Somebody's gotta take a long, hard look in the mirror...the American people.

Brain Trust - Warren Smith

Warren Smith, Associate Editor of World Magazine and member of the Matt Friedeman Show Brain Trust, on Terrorists, Presidential hopefuls, and Republicans.

The AP is calling for the release of the Bin Laden death photos, Yes or no?

I'm usually in favor of transparent government.

If the government has a document, I think we should be able to see it - I have that vein in me.

This particular situation is...unusual in that if this photo is released it will undoubtedly incite Muslims around the world.

The end of Al Qaeda?

Well, the death of Osama Bin Laden, no question about it, is important. I think it sends a strong message to bad guys around the world.

On the other hand...it was also a signal that no matter how long itakes, the United States will get the bad guy.

Willl it be the end of terrorism? I don't think so.

Will it be the end of Al Qaeda? I don't think so.

The Al Qaeda cells around the world are pretty self sufficient and even self funded.

So they will probably remain active. But the thing we're learning in the last few days...is that Osama Bin Laden did exercise a serious amount of control.

And that coordination will go down.

Mitch Daniels is considering a presidential bid. Will he run?

I think Mitch Daniels is very seriously considering running.

I know that becaue I spoke to him personally and he said that.

He's got some concerns. He understands the impact it has on his family. But yeah, I think Mitch Daniels is seriously considering, and I think he would have a good chance at winning the Republican nomination.

Here's the bottom line. The bottom line is the bottom line...Barack Obama will raise $1 billion.

A lot of Republicans are wondering, "Why get in the fight?...I can wait around for four years."

John Boehner says GOP is talking about trillions, not billions, in cuts. Is this anything more than talk?

Boehner is talking a good game, but politics is the art of the possible, not the art of what you want to get on any given day.

Boehner remembers what happened during 1995-1996 (Gingrich/Clinton fiasco).

He's one of these guys afraid of shutting down the government, whereas a lot of these young Teaparty guys weren't there. They feel like this situation is different.

I think that the real interesting political battle is going to be no necessarily between the Republicans and the Democrats, but between Republicans and Republicans to see who will win the heart and soul of Republican voters.